Posted by
Jean-Marc Liotier
813 days ago
(http://www.fivethirtyeight.com)
Category: Economy & politics |
The goal of this model is to make the best prediction possible on the basis of the imperfect currently available state-by-state polling data updated daily.
Each poll is assigned a weighting based on the pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable pollsters are weighted more heavily. Regression estimates based on the demographics in each state are added to help account for outlier polls and to stabilize the results. Simulations are then used to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes.
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Posted by
Jean-Marc Liotier
813 days ago
(http://www.fivethirtyeight.com)
Category: Economy & politics |
Each poll is assigned a weighting based on the pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable pollsters are weighted more heavily. Regression estimates based on the demographics in each state are added to help account for outlier polls and to stabilize the results. Simulations are then used to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes.
3 Comments
Tell a friend
Bury
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